THE ART OF RISK

Introduction:

 

1. OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2025
   https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/06/oecd-economic-surveys-germany-2025_b395dc9b.html
    

2. European innovation scoreboard 2025
   https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/knowledge-publications-tools-and-data/publications/all-publications/european-innovation-scoreboard-2025_en
    

3. How Ukraine Rebuilt Its Military Acquisition System Around Commercial Technology
   https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-ukraine-rebuilt-its-military-acquisition-system-around-commercial-technology
    

4. Enhancing Resilience by Boosting Digital Business Transformation in Ukraine
   https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/enhancing-resilience-by-boosting-digital-business-transformation-in-ukraine_4b13b0bb-en/full-report/component-5.html
    

5. OECD Economic Surveys: Israel 2025
   https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-israel-2025_d6dd02bc-en.html
    

6. Global Innovation Index 2024 results
   https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/global-innovation-index-2024/en/gii-2024-results.html
    

7. Elliot, A.J. The Hierarchical Model of Approach-Avoidance Motivation. Motiv Emot 30, 111–116 (2006).
   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-006-9028-7
    

8. Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. New York: Random House Publishing Group.

 

 

Mathematical perspective:
 

1. Bernoulli, Daniel. “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk.” Econometrica, vol. 22, no. 1, 1954, pp. 23–36. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/1909829.
    

2. Feller, W. (1971). An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (Vol. 2, 2nd ed.). Wiley.
    

3. Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press.
    

4. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica, vol. 47, no. 2, 1979, pp. 263–91. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185

 

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Psychological perspective:
 

1. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
    

2. David, S. (2016). Emotional Agility: Get Unstuck, Embrace Change, and Thrive in Work and Life. New York: Avery.
    

3. Kounios, J., & Beeman, M. (2014). The Cognitive Neuroscience of Insight.
   Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 71–93.
   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010213-115154
    

4. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
    

5. Neff, K. (2003). Self-Compassion: An Alternative Conceptualization of a Healthy Attitude Toward Oneself. Self and Identity, 2(2), 85–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/15298860309032
    

6. Sirois, F. and Pychyl, T. (2013), Procrastination and the Priority of Short-Term Mood Regulation: Consequences for Future Self. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 7: 115-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12011
    

7. Boroditsky, L. (2011). How Language Shapes Thought. Scientific American, 304(2), 62–65,
   https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0211-62
    

8. Crum, A. J., Salovey, P., & Achor, S. (2013). Rethinking stress: The role of mindsets in determining the stress response. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 104(4), 716–733. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0031201
    

9. Keller, A., Litzelman, K., Wisk, L. E., et al. (2012).
   Does the perception that stress affects health matter? Health Psychology, 31(5), 677–684.
   https://doi.org/10.1037/a0026743

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Solutions:
 

1. Kruglanski, A. W. (2004). The psychology of closed mindedness. Psychology Press.
    

2. Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54(7), 493–503. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0003-066X.54.7.493
    

3. Amabile, T. M. (1983). The social psychology of creativity: A componential conceptualization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45(2), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.45.2.357
    

4. Zaccaro, A., Piarulli, A., Laurino, M., et al. (2018).
   How breath-control can change your life: A systematic review on psychophysiological correlates of slow breathing. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 12, 353. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2018.00353
    

5. Bandura, A. (1982). Self-efficacy mechanism in human agency. American Psychologist, 37(2), 122–147.
   https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.37.2.122
    

6. Meichenbaum, D. (2009). Stress inoculation training. In W. T. O'Donohue & J. E. Fisher (Eds.), General principles and empirically supported techniques of cognitive behavior therapy (pp. 627–630). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    

7. Limb, C. J., & Braun, A. R. (2008). Neural substrates of spontaneous musical performance. PLoS ONE 3(2): e1679.
   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001679
    

8. Fredrickson, B. L. (2001). The role of positive emotions in positive psychology: The broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions. American Psychologist, 56(3), 218–226. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.56.3.218
    

9. Martin, R. A. (2007). The psychology of humor: An integrative approach. Burlington, MA: Elsevier.